* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 40 40 40 42 44 47 47 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 40 40 40 42 44 47 47 47 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 36 35 33 32 31 30 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 4 8 8 9 8 11 6 15 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 4 2 -2 -1 -5 -4 -1 -5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 122 137 149 149 151 200 184 203 167 106 104 92 115 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 139 140 136 133 135 134 135 134 130 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 60 63 63 60 58 55 51 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 17 16 17 16 17 18 19 18 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 16 21 25 35 18 18 12 1 19 45 64 200 MB DIV 0 5 0 0 6 35 36 43 28 14 -2 5 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1608 1653 1696 1740 1784 1865 1881 1922 1949 1982 2045 2187 2194 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.1 16.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.7 126.2 126.7 127.2 128.4 129.1 129.7 130.3 130.7 131.2 132.4 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 8 8 7 8 14 21 25 21 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 125.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 20.3% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 8.2% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##