* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 44 46 53 59 66 68 65 60 49 43 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 44 46 53 59 66 68 65 60 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 47 52 56 57 55 50 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 13 19 20 14 17 23 26 24 32 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 4 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 78 58 51 67 85 98 92 94 92 84 88 88 97 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 157 152 152 151 151 149 148 149 150 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 79 80 77 72 67 65 64 63 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 15 16 18 21 22 21 20 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 50 50 45 42 41 46 62 59 70 63 86 200 MB DIV 112 100 99 131 129 113 117 119 103 80 59 0 1 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -15 -15 -7 -1 3 5 5 3 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 830 814 815 825 835 782 761 777 789 799 819 828 815 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.7 110.5 111.2 111.9 113.1 113.7 114.0 114.5 114.8 115.1 115.8 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 2 1 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 27 21 18 14 15 17 16 15 14 14 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 11. 9. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 11. 18. 24. 31. 33. 30. 25. 14. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 108.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.19 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 20.6% 19.7% 15.1% 0.0% 18.4% 19.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 2.7% 3.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 3.7% 9.5% 7.5% 5.5% 0.1% 7.0% 7.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##