* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 55 58 62 63 61 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 55 58 62 63 61 60 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 53 56 59 62 63 64 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 13 14 17 19 15 14 18 15 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 3 7 2 5 5 3 0 -4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 51 41 33 18 20 9 26 31 38 22 43 42 57 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.7 30.6 29.6 28.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 171 171 170 169 169 169 170 170 160 149 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 10 8 11 8 10 6 8 4 4 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 73 74 72 71 70 67 66 63 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 9 8 8 9 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 3 -10 8 26 53 57 88 74 74 61 56 200 MB DIV 102 67 56 58 71 59 70 20 41 22 51 24 29 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -9 -9 -6 0 0 -3 -8 -11 -10 2 7 LAND (KM) 294 246 190 123 73 44 26 42 180 201 84 133 126 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.4 103.0 103.4 103.8 104.6 105.2 105.9 107.4 108.9 110.3 111.6 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 34 34 35 38 43 45 36 34 16 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 10. 13. 17. 18. 16. 15. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 101.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 27.1% 24.0% 18.7% 12.1% 22.2% 23.0% 22.4% Logistic: 3.2% 20.5% 7.5% 4.2% 0.9% 9.8% 9.4% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% Consensus: 5.4% 19.7% 11.5% 7.9% 4.4% 12.1% 11.3% 8.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##