* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 41 42 47 50 53 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 41 42 47 50 53 54 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 40 38 36 35 34 34 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 7 7 5 10 5 2 8 9 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 -4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 156 175 194 174 195 208 210 199 155 78 101 86 90 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 26.8 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 140 139 136 135 136 136 137 130 133 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 63 62 62 59 57 52 54 55 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 18 17 18 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 25 30 42 31 31 20 7 2 23 35 62 200 MB DIV 5 -1 5 8 23 34 46 49 46 6 3 14 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1655 1709 1764 1800 1837 1896 1904 1928 1962 2020 2140 2292 2129 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.7 16.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.2 126.8 127.3 127.7 128.6 129.1 129.6 130.2 130.9 132.0 133.4 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 9 8 8 10 14 21 24 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 125.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 21.9% 15.6% 15.0% 9.8% 17.9% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.1% 4.3% 2.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.7% 6.6% 5.8% 3.4% 6.7% 6.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##