* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 48 52 55 57 57 54 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 48 52 55 57 57 54 51 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 47 49 52 54 55 56 54 51 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 21 22 17 14 22 19 34 32 23 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -3 -7 -2 2 3 1 -1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 60 52 58 71 80 80 86 78 101 85 95 107 93 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 152 149 150 150 150 151 150 150 152 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 80 78 74 68 64 61 57 53 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 41 39 35 26 43 56 79 80 83 63 81 200 MB DIV 106 118 131 127 123 128 117 77 65 11 5 17 24 700-850 TADV -13 -16 -18 -9 -7 -1 4 0 4 4 1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 819 819 835 849 818 796 775 780 776 764 731 676 606 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.6 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.4 111.2 111.8 112.4 113.2 113.4 113.5 113.8 114.1 114.3 114.6 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 6 3 1 1 2 2 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 22 19 15 13 16 16 17 17 16 15 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 14. 11. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 109.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.12 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.9% 21.3% 16.6% 0.0% 19.9% 21.4% 10.9% Logistic: 2.8% 8.9% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.6% 3.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 5.6% 10.8% 8.3% 6.1% 0.2% 7.5% 8.4% 4.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##