* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 56 59 65 72 80 83 82 77 69 67 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 56 59 65 72 80 83 82 77 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 58 64 72 80 89 92 87 77 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 16 14 16 11 11 12 15 18 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 9 10 6 5 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 32 9 13 26 28 16 25 39 57 78 92 132 217 SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.1 29.3 27.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 170 169 169 168 170 170 165 157 133 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 10 9 10 8 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 73 72 70 71 67 66 63 57 48 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 8 9 11 12 15 19 21 22 20 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 14 0 -2 8 33 37 70 71 80 49 49 41 42 200 MB DIV 67 58 51 84 83 54 29 32 35 23 34 9 34 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -10 -9 -8 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 244 172 121 96 74 32 57 136 261 137 99 95 110 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.9 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.2 103.8 104.2 104.6 105.2 106.0 107.0 108.1 109.4 111.0 112.3 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 37 39 43 46 40 35 25 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 7. 11. 12. 10. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 30. 33. 32. 27. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 102.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 38.6% 27.2% 21.0% 13.7% 24.7% 23.9% 23.9% Logistic: 6.4% 25.3% 10.4% 6.0% 1.0% 10.2% 4.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 14.5% 4.3% 0.9% 0.0% 3.8% 5.3% 6.8% Consensus: 7.6% 26.1% 14.0% 9.3% 4.9% 12.9% 11.3% 10.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 9.0% 6.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##