* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 58 59 58 57 59 58 57 55 56 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 58 59 58 57 59 58 57 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 55 55 52 48 46 44 42 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 6 5 4 10 6 4 10 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 0 -1 0 -7 -2 -1 -4 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 60 85 146 178 221 213 276 233 15 85 85 74 58 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 141 138 138 137 138 137 132 131 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 63 63 63 62 59 57 55 54 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 31 41 36 25 18 5 -1 4 28 53 71 200 MB DIV 1 0 9 15 22 44 72 60 23 0 3 -6 8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1752 1803 1855 1884 1913 1950 1958 1985 2042 2147 2284 2178 2056 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.0 127.5 128.0 128.4 129.1 129.6 130.3 131.0 132.0 133.3 134.6 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 9 11 14 25 30 17 14 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.88 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 33.6% 28.3% 21.7% 14.3% 24.7% 22.8% 9.0% Logistic: 19.3% 42.3% 24.3% 19.5% 3.5% 18.4% 7.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.7% 25.7% 17.6% 13.7% 5.9% 14.4% 10.0% 3.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##