* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 66 71 72 69 65 59 54 51 49 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 66 71 72 69 65 59 54 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 63 65 69 70 68 63 57 52 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 17 14 13 17 29 24 33 24 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -7 -2 0 0 1 0 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 61 61 71 74 72 120 88 108 93 92 89 102 1 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 151 148 147 145 145 146 148 148 147 143 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 76 71 68 66 61 57 54 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 39 34 35 37 51 67 65 70 65 69 49 200 MB DIV 122 136 134 128 131 125 92 80 30 36 21 53 6 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -13 -10 -7 8 12 7 8 0 -7 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 838 856 873 838 808 771 755 711 653 613 577 532 450 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.3 113.4 113.3 113.3 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 5 2 1 3 4 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 25 20 17 16 15 15 14 14 15 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 21. 22. 19. 15. 9. 4. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 110.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 47.0% 31.1% 23.0% 14.3% 36.0% 30.3% 9.5% Logistic: 5.3% 16.2% 7.3% 4.5% 1.9% 4.3% 2.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 9.0% 5.5% 4.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 11.0% 22.9% 14.2% 9.4% 5.5% 13.7% 11.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 14.0% 16.0% 15.0% 12.0% 5.0% 11.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##