* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 66 73 76 76 73 69 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 57 70 74 74 71 67 63 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 63 68 74 79 82 84 82 72 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 18 13 16 15 18 11 13 6 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 1 7 4 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 4 3 19 15 358 9 22 61 36 45 50 184 257 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.8 31.0 31.1 30.2 29.2 28.0 27.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 169 167 167 169 170 170 166 155 143 134 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 12 8 11 6 9 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 73 69 72 69 67 63 59 56 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 23 34 45 55 76 90 62 65 46 14 17 200 MB DIV 74 65 78 76 61 51 5 31 6 25 10 12 10 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -11 -6 0 -4 -11 -14 -4 -3 3 0 17 LAND (KM) 119 83 64 32 0 13 109 230 102 23 26 10 0 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.3 20.2 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.1 24.0 25.2 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.8 104.4 104.7 104.9 105.7 106.7 107.8 109.2 110.4 111.3 112.2 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 35 38 41 46 40 31 24 15 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 23. 26. 26. 23. 19. 16. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 103.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 38.6% 27.5% 21.3% 13.8% 24.3% 22.6% 11.3% Logistic: 6.4% 23.2% 10.3% 5.9% 1.4% 9.3% 5.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 5.7% 4.8% 6.0% Consensus: 7.9% 24.1% 13.6% 9.3% 5.1% 13.1% 11.0% 6.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 17.0% 12.0% 12.0% 7.0% 14.0% 5.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##