* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 63 62 60 58 56 55 55 55 56 58 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 63 62 60 58 56 55 55 55 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 59 55 51 47 44 43 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 2 3 6 4 4 4 6 9 10 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 2 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 234 154 179 258 263 272 278 305 73 99 93 113 149 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 139 139 138 138 139 133 131 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 62 64 63 62 64 64 62 59 59 59 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 42 36 25 17 -3 -5 -7 13 20 57 66 200 MB DIV 2 19 17 21 40 29 30 24 6 -3 7 15 12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1820 1863 1908 1933 1959 1981 1983 2025 2123 2250 2231 2085 1904 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.2 15.4 15.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.5 128.0 128.4 128.8 129.6 130.0 130.7 131.8 132.9 134.2 135.7 137.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 11 14 19 30 19 15 13 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.92 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.0% 44.5% 37.5% 28.4% 15.7% 28.8% 22.3% 8.1% Logistic: 25.2% 45.4% 31.8% 27.3% 3.6% 27.2% 9.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 30.9% 23.2% 18.6% 6.5% 18.7% 10.8% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##