* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 79 87 99 106 104 97 86 76 69 63 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 79 87 99 106 104 97 86 76 69 63 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 71 76 83 98 110 114 107 94 80 69 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 13 12 4 8 17 18 15 13 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 0 -2 4 4 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 18 29 23 5 1 8 104 104 94 113 140 201 269 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.8 31.0 31.0 29.9 29.3 27.6 26.4 25.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 170 170 170 163 157 139 126 118 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 73 72 73 67 61 60 55 51 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 12 14 17 21 22 23 20 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 8 24 41 46 51 73 80 63 67 57 33 33 8 200 MB DIV 63 73 86 69 61 53 51 23 29 49 4 35 -19 700-850 TADV -17 -13 -8 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -6 1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 103 79 39 45 51 139 247 118 96 130 98 122 35 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.7 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.2 105.6 106.0 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.9 112.1 113.1 114.0 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 46 50 48 38 34 20 14 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 19. 17. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 27. 39. 46. 44. 37. 26. 16. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 56.2% 38.6% 31.8% 25.2% 37.7% 26.4% 10.8% Logistic: 6.2% 19.5% 8.7% 4.2% 1.4% 12.9% 8.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.9% 18.1% 6.6% 2.1% 1.9% 13.1% 11.9% 1.6% Consensus: 10.2% 31.3% 18.0% 12.7% 9.5% 21.2% 15.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##