* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 69 74 72 68 60 53 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 69 74 72 68 60 53 47 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 62 64 64 61 55 48 40 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 20 19 19 21 28 36 21 16 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -7 -3 0 1 5 0 10 6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 66 61 57 61 65 68 93 86 100 95 119 121 34 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.0 26.7 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 147 148 148 147 147 150 145 130 121 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 72 69 66 62 58 50 39 31 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 27 29 29 43 67 69 87 91 60 58 30 200 MB DIV 120 114 132 130 120 89 114 41 40 -4 -19 -12 -26 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -5 -2 6 3 4 15 5 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 892 852 810 758 706 650 637 623 610 587 525 522 490 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.8 20.3 22.2 23.3 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.5 112.5 112.4 112.8 113.1 113.9 115.3 116.6 117.2 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 2 2 3 8 11 9 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 18 16 16 16 14 14 15 9 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 17. 13. 6. -2. -8. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.1 112.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.03 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 34.2% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.4% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 13.9% 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 28.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##