* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 78 84 88 95 94 88 78 69 62 58 53 V (KT) LAND 65 71 78 84 88 95 94 88 78 69 62 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 81 85 91 95 94 88 80 70 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 9 10 13 15 19 8 7 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 5 1 0 -4 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 36 23 10 8 22 11 63 60 83 67 132 248 316 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.9 29.6 29.2 27.5 26.1 25.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 170 170 159 155 138 124 112 100 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 11 7 9 5 6 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 70 70 72 66 62 59 54 46 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 40 43 47 62 73 76 55 61 44 28 37 14 200 MB DIV 83 89 81 68 71 40 60 10 41 -3 27 4 -38 700-850 TADV -15 -10 -6 -8 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 0 -3 8 -1 LAND (KM) 74 37 22 43 66 170 238 111 81 92 101 118 67 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.9 25.9 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.9 105.3 105.8 106.3 107.3 108.6 110.0 110.8 111.9 113.3 114.3 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 8 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 48 49 46 37 34 17 14 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 23. 30. 29. 23. 13. 4. -3. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 104.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.51 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 7.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.2% 70.2% 58.7% 50.7% 46.7% 46.2% 26.4% 10.4% Logistic: 26.4% 48.9% 34.7% 21.9% 6.8% 30.5% 6.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 14.2% 50.1% 44.6% 36.4% 6.3% 32.0% 12.2% 0.0% Consensus: 30.6% 56.4% 46.0% 36.3% 19.9% 36.2% 14.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 16.0% 14.0% 13.0% 6.0% 12.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##