* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 57 56 54 54 51 51 55 56 52 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 57 56 54 54 51 51 55 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 51 47 43 41 40 41 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 6 8 10 3 6 7 7 4 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 -4 2 0 0 3 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 83 143 196 211 255 244 289 86 96 76 94 181 187 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 138 137 138 137 137 133 129 131 132 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 60 60 60 58 56 58 56 59 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 17 17 17 16 17 15 14 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 33 23 18 9 6 -3 20 30 67 87 80 200 MB DIV 27 30 34 49 47 44 29 -7 6 4 22 65 71 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 0 -1 0 -1 2 7 LAND (KM) 1891 1913 1935 1950 1966 1969 2006 2072 2168 2257 2113 1978 1843 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.4 15.9 16.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.4 128.8 129.2 129.6 130.2 130.9 131.6 132.5 133.7 135.2 136.4 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 6 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 12 15 23 33 21 12 13 10 9 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. 0. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 27.0% 26.3% 20.2% 12.9% 21.4% 18.7% 6.5% Logistic: 5.3% 16.1% 7.6% 4.9% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 14.5% 11.3% 8.3% 4.7% 8.0% 6.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 23.0% 9.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##