* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 64 66 69 67 57 50 43 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 64 66 69 67 57 50 43 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 59 59 55 50 44 39 34 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 21 24 22 19 20 28 24 22 16 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -5 -2 5 2 2 3 4 3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 60 60 61 62 74 78 84 104 119 146 193 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.0 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 151 151 151 151 152 149 140 122 114 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 70 69 65 58 54 45 37 30 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 17 19 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 29 26 38 38 60 69 80 51 45 29 47 200 MB DIV 133 154 152 129 100 100 66 22 10 15 -10 -20 -21 700-850 TADV -7 -1 0 7 6 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 835 776 717 675 634 588 509 443 439 402 392 390 342 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.3 24.3 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.7 111.6 111.5 111.7 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.5 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 5 7 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 18 19 20 18 14 12 14 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 2. -5. -12. -18. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 111.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 10.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 15.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##