* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 77 82 89 90 85 77 68 61 56 53 V (KT) LAND 65 71 74 79 84 91 93 87 79 70 63 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 75 79 86 90 90 85 75 65 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 4 3 5 6 9 13 12 14 15 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 7 6 4 -1 -6 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 9 347 25 80 13 34 70 82 90 128 179 220 247 SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.0 29.3 28.1 26.5 25.6 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 170 163 156 144 128 118 103 97 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 11 8 8 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 70 71 66 63 58 51 44 34 27 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 7 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 54 70 81 72 62 60 50 47 37 31 52 200 MB DIV 87 78 79 83 62 35 32 4 17 15 21 -13 3 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -10 -5 -5 -7 -2 0 -1 -2 0 2 -3 LAND (KM) -5 4 21 85 151 238 129 99 124 90 156 116 105 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.4 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.3 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 105.9 106.5 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.8 111.8 112.9 114.1 114.9 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 46 41 35 33 21 15 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 25. 20. 12. 3. -4. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.3 104.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.8% 61.4% 52.9% 45.4% 43.2% 39.6% 23.9% 9.9% Logistic: 8.9% 28.0% 19.9% 10.1% 1.6% 13.0% 2.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.1% 18.6% 13.1% 5.8% 0.8% 4.6% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 15.0% 36.0% 28.6% 20.4% 15.2% 19.1% 9.3% 3.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 14.0% 11.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##