* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 52 47 45 46 46 48 46 40 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 54 52 47 45 46 46 48 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 52 48 42 37 35 34 34 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 6 5 9 10 11 4 3 4 2 6 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 -2 2 3 0 5 7 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 70 195 198 234 254 224 254 111 91 103 230 211 221 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 133 133 131 131 130 130 136 137 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 58 59 58 58 57 54 52 52 49 50 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 17 17 15 14 16 15 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 23 17 10 5 2 12 33 64 99 104 81 200 MB DIV 33 31 34 36 58 45 6 -20 4 38 45 51 23 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 1920 1935 1950 1959 1969 1968 2045 2142 2246 2153 2009 1880 1792 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.6 17.6 17.3 16.9 16.4 16.3 16.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.9 129.3 129.7 130.1 130.7 131.6 132.5 133.4 134.7 136.1 137.2 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 18 29 21 12 12 13 12 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. -2. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 128.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 28.5% 20.4% 18.7% 11.9% 20.0% 16.4% 5.5% Logistic: 2.9% 7.5% 3.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 12.0% 8.1% 7.0% 4.2% 6.9% 5.5% 1.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 17.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##