* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 69 71 71 68 62 53 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 69 71 71 68 62 53 44 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 61 60 59 57 52 45 38 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 20 22 19 23 21 13 11 5 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 67 65 66 62 69 80 81 92 98 123 183 255 275 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.0 27.0 25.5 25.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 151 150 150 150 154 143 133 117 110 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 69 67 65 62 54 50 43 38 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 17 19 18 17 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 30 40 43 56 60 68 59 42 39 35 54 200 MB DIV 152 143 139 101 113 88 44 50 3 -6 0 -20 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 3 1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 773 726 679 635 591 550 482 401 394 375 442 424 386 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.9 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.8 24.7 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 111.9 111.7 111.7 111.6 111.3 111.8 112.8 113.7 115.1 116.6 117.5 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 7 8 8 8 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 18 17 16 12 14 9 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 13. 7. -2. -11. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 112.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.03 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 30.2% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 11.3% 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 28.0% 17.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##