* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 65 69 76 77 75 73 69 65 62 57 V (KT) LAND 60 67 69 72 76 82 84 82 79 76 72 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 65 67 69 75 78 78 74 69 63 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 4 5 5 6 6 5 11 13 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 6 2 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -4 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 7 269 283 342 291 121 56 94 231 205 228 254 272 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.3 29.7 29.3 28.4 26.7 26.0 25.2 24.0 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 167 167 161 156 147 130 121 113 101 77 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 8 7 8 4 6 3 3 2 4 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 66 58 58 59 55 53 52 42 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 78 85 82 60 63 53 53 30 33 15 15 200 MB DIV 68 85 86 54 54 49 10 24 5 26 23 8 -35 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 -4 0 -4 2 9 0 2 LAND (KM) -5 59 147 189 225 88 90 57 30 90 11 -21 83 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.6 24.8 25.8 26.6 27.6 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.2 106.9 107.4 107.9 109.6 110.9 111.3 112.6 113.3 113.5 114.2 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 5 6 7 5 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 33 29 29 21 14 9 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 16. 17. 15. 13. 9. 5. 2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 105.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.91 12.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 54.2% 46.7% 39.4% 36.4% 39.7% 24.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 18.2% 14.8% 6.2% 1.4% 5.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 24.5% 20.7% 15.3% 12.6% 15.1% 8.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##