* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 40 39 36 33 33 33 36 35 33 30 V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 40 39 36 33 33 33 36 35 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 39 36 34 30 27 24 23 22 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 12 11 10 2 4 5 2 14 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 1 4 2 3 8 8 2 4 10 SHEAR DIR 219 219 243 246 232 237 257 136 61 302 224 225 220 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 133 133 130 127 128 134 136 137 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 57 55 53 52 51 49 50 49 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 16 17 15 15 15 13 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 21 20 17 19 9 5 29 49 80 94 99 81 200 MB DIV 22 26 33 58 75 26 -4 -2 27 45 57 36 23 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 1950 1962 1975 1978 1982 2023 2098 2202 2158 2061 1979 1868 1728 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 17.7 17.3 16.6 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.1 129.6 130.0 130.4 130.7 131.5 132.3 133.2 134.6 135.6 136.3 137.2 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 15 26 32 19 10 9 13 13 14 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -9. -10. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 129.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.57 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.4% 19.5% 14.1% 9.5% 17.2% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.2% 7.1% 5.0% 3.3% 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##