* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 54 56 60 63 58 54 49 45 43 38 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 54 56 60 63 58 54 49 45 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 50 50 52 53 50 46 41 36 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 18 19 19 22 18 10 9 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 1 5 -4 -2 0 0 0 -6 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 61 58 62 53 60 69 82 91 124 165 172 316 37 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.3 28.6 27.1 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 156 157 150 134 118 114 110 106 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 68 63 57 54 47 43 37 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 21 21 24 22 20 18 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 47 56 63 70 76 65 49 45 39 36 23 200 MB DIV 124 117 106 77 89 59 32 10 -3 6 -11 -16 -3 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 -2 -7 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 2 3 7 LAND (KM) 676 634 591 542 493 370 313 335 330 388 414 435 490 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.6 20.7 21.5 22.7 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.7 110.5 110.2 109.9 110.5 111.9 112.9 114.6 115.9 116.9 117.8 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 8 7 8 9 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 16 15 14 13 12 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 8. 4. -1. -5. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 110.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 18.6% 18.0% 13.5% 8.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 6.2% 4.6% 2.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##