* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 69 73 78 78 76 73 68 62 56 49 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 69 73 78 78 75 72 67 60 54 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 67 71 77 79 75 69 63 55 45 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 7 3 3 3 4 13 19 23 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 -4 0 -3 -1 2 -2 3 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 246 247 245 258 235 95 47 203 228 229 244 267 267 SST (C) 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.3 26.9 26.1 24.5 22.7 21.6 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 167 166 163 155 146 131 123 107 87 75 76 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 62 60 56 56 51 52 53 49 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 79 92 78 62 60 68 60 41 41 30 32 -10 200 MB DIV 73 89 62 37 52 8 6 15 10 41 -13 -16 -19 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -3 -9 1 -1 5 6 9 7 7 6 LAND (KM) 118 175 210 147 78 52 56 20 109 34 25 47 9 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.7 25.0 25.6 26.7 28.0 29.0 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.3 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.6 111.4 112.4 113.3 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 29 31 25 14 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 18. 17. 13. 8. 2. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.4 106.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.84 10.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 53.8% 44.2% 37.3% 31.2% 30.5% 22.2% 9.7% Logistic: 4.2% 9.9% 9.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 21.4% 17.8% 13.5% 11.0% 10.7% 7.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 25.0% 19.0% 13.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##