* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 59 59 66 65 58 50 45 39 36 32 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 59 59 66 65 58 50 45 39 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 57 58 61 60 53 46 39 34 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 17 13 19 18 15 8 5 4 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 3 -1 2 -4 3 0 -1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 59 60 55 60 74 68 84 112 134 158 186 11 11 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 28.9 27.7 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 153 155 158 159 153 140 123 114 108 106 107 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 67 66 62 56 52 47 46 39 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 24 23 20 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 48 53 62 74 73 69 51 40 39 21 35 14 200 MB DIV 107 88 52 62 56 37 27 -14 12 10 -19 -7 -20 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 -8 -1 -3 -2 0 -6 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 602 536 471 434 356 259 294 303 329 391 386 416 475 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.1 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.0 109.6 109.7 109.9 111.1 112.5 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.1 117.9 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 15 15 17 15 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 11. 10. 3. -5. -10. -16. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 23.6% 16.0% 15.5% 0.0% 17.5% 13.9% 5.7% Logistic: 0.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.7% 5.6% 5.3% 0.0% 5.9% 4.7% 1.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##