* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 72 76 81 81 77 68 57 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 72 76 81 81 77 59 54 45 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 67 70 73 73 69 53 48 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 8 5 6 6 5 16 26 32 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 2 5 2 5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 282 240 214 191 308 281 252 234 242 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.3 28.0 26.9 25.7 23.2 21.6 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 166 162 157 143 131 120 93 75 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 7 6 7 8 4 5 2 3 1 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 58 56 55 51 47 46 47 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 73 61 59 50 56 48 22 35 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 68 31 36 23 5 12 0 32 12 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -7 0 1 6 15 2 13 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 173 93 33 20 48 10 52 -5 78 23 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.9 24.8 26.2 27.7 28.7 29.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.3 111.5 112.4 113.3 114.7 115.4 115.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 30 22 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 21. 17. 8. -3. -12. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.0 107.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.79 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 55.8% 41.3% 33.6% 26.5% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 18.1% 14.3% 7.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 25.1% 18.6% 13.6% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 33.0% 23.0% 14.0% 7.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##