* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 73 77 76 72 64 53 44 41 37 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 73 77 76 72 64 53 44 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 66 68 69 67 61 53 43 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 8 2 1 7 21 28 31 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 -2 -2 0 3 1 2 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 244 150 170 166 232 236 239 244 256 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.3 28.8 27.4 26.3 24.2 22.8 22.0 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 160 157 151 137 126 104 88 80 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 57 55 53 53 49 48 51 47 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 68 57 61 45 63 50 37 35 29 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 30 42 46 18 18 9 10 35 -1 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 1 6 3 7 2 18 5 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 108 45 28 59 68 101 42 41 107 48 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.6 23.0 23.3 24.1 25.2 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.4 111.0 112.1 113.2 114.4 115.4 116.0 116.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 28 20 15 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 12. 4. -7. -16. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.2 108.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.7% 51.9% 37.6% 28.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 13.7% 11.2% 5.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 22.1% 16.3% 11.1% 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 20.0% 15.0% 9.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##