* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 46 42 41 43 46 46 42 38 34 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 46 42 41 43 46 46 42 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 48 46 41 37 36 36 36 32 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 12 8 3 1 3 8 18 15 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 6 3 1 6 0 -2 5 8 11 0 SHEAR DIR 242 236 230 255 275 175 31 141 205 188 195 181 203 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 129 129 126 127 130 134 134 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 51 50 50 51 56 52 52 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 6 6 -1 4 26 45 82 78 49 30 26 200 MB DIV 44 47 31 21 0 -19 2 34 56 69 28 21 58 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 9 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1926 1937 1950 1976 2003 2094 2228 2175 2062 1957 1870 1821 1801 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.1 17.9 17.3 16.8 16.7 17.2 18.0 18.5 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.5 130.8 131.2 131.5 132.4 133.5 134.4 135.5 136.4 137.1 137.5 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 20 18 15 7 8 10 11 15 18 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -7. -4. -4. -8. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.5 130.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.38 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 21.4% 14.6% 14.1% 9.2% 17.8% 15.5% 5.5% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.8% 5.3% 4.8% 3.1% 6.0% 5.2% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##