* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 46 40 34 28 25 24 24 24 23 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 50 46 40 34 28 25 24 24 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 50 46 40 34 29 24 21 19 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 28 27 27 21 17 16 10 3 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 -1 -2 1 7 3 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 62 66 75 75 77 96 97 129 183 290 327 299 345 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.4 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 153 149 138 118 112 108 105 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 60 56 48 40 32 25 19 17 17 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 65 69 60 67 47 52 50 20 44 50 44 200 MB DIV 72 75 68 47 34 19 -17 10 -10 -17 -12 -19 -36 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 551 523 468 412 372 383 420 453 469 521 609 707 796 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.3 19.9 21.0 21.8 23.2 24.2 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.2 110.3 111.0 111.6 113.1 114.8 116.4 117.6 118.6 119.5 120.5 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 9 9 9 9 9 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 11 12 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -27. -30. -30. -31. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 110.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##