* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 76 76 73 66 57 53 49 47 45 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 76 76 73 66 57 53 49 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 73 74 72 65 58 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 2 7 10 3 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 211 139 111 64 125 195 172 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.9 26.5 25.8 24.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 162 158 152 128 120 104 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 4 4 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 55 56 50 44 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 65 57 43 47 34 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 41 31 21 6 18 3 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 44 9 51 89 118 162 143 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.8 24.9 26.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.2 112.7 113.9 114.9 115.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 25 20 18 14 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 1. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.6 108.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.80 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 40.6% 31.7% 23.1% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 8.4% 7.8% 3.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 16.8% 13.3% 8.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##