* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 43 37 30 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 43 37 30 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 48 45 37 30 24 21 19 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 29 32 28 17 9 8 11 12 11 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 4 2 2 1 0 -2 -4 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 77 75 78 84 95 104 166 219 272 298 273 253 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.2 26.8 25.0 24.1 23.6 23.9 23.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 154 146 132 112 102 96 99 99 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 55 42 36 30 26 22 20 19 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 15 14 11 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 55 51 63 44 42 43 35 66 93 63 59 200 MB DIV 85 70 30 28 46 11 8 -5 -6 -16 0 -33 -16 700-850 TADV 4 3 -4 -7 -7 -2 -4 -2 1 0 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 545 512 457 396 348 358 353 391 371 401 475 589 737 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.1 25.6 25.6 25.1 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 111.0 111.5 113.1 114.8 116.2 117.2 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 9 10 10 8 6 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 12 12 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -23. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -25. -33. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 110.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##