* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 75 75 75 68 56 47 39 36 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 70 69 71 71 71 63 52 43 35 32 30 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 70 62 71 71 69 60 50 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 0 4 8 12 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 6 0 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 183 223 103 146 199 221 214 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.8 28.8 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.4 23.6 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 162 151 138 130 124 116 97 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 52 50 41 35 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 13 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 56 55 66 41 55 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 33 8 13 21 29 5 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 3 7 5 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 -4 51 71 89 90 180 141 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.3 25.3 26.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.6 112.1 113.0 114.4 115.4 116.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 20 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 5. -2. -14. -23. -31. -34. -35. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.0 109.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.0% 31.5% 30.1% 22.9% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 3.7% 8.1% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.6% 11.9% 12.7% 8.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##