* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 50 46 44 43 41 38 34 33 34 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 50 46 44 43 41 38 34 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 51 49 44 41 40 39 36 31 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 6 3 6 1 12 19 15 15 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 2 0 8 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 255 277 276 230 8 132 198 183 189 153 144 141 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 128 128 128 128 128 134 134 134 130 127 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 51 50 52 54 57 57 57 54 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 -9 -9 1 18 40 63 74 38 16 23 24 200 MB DIV 38 25 -7 -30 -51 -15 12 37 73 35 13 30 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1894 1929 1964 2013 2061 2217 2204 2085 1955 1896 1891 1815 1648 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.8 131.2 131.7 132.1 133.3 134.1 135.3 136.5 136.9 136.8 137.5 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 13 12 9 9 9 11 12 18 12 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 130.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.59 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.1% 17.4% 16.2% 10.7% 17.9% 14.8% 4.2% Logistic: 0.8% 3.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.4% 6.8% 5.6% 3.8% 6.0% 4.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##