* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 43 40 35 29 21 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 47 43 40 35 29 21 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 47 44 37 30 25 21 20 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 30 29 26 16 12 8 7 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 0 3 1 -2 -3 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 76 73 82 85 80 109 144 197 281 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 26.7 25.8 24.3 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 153 155 153 130 120 104 94 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 58 54 46 41 37 31 29 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 10 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 49 59 64 38 17 5 10 50 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 32 44 55 43 7 15 5 0 -14 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -11 -10 -4 -6 -1 2 -2 -8 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 462 402 347 296 230 161 172 173 179 185 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.8 23.5 24.7 25.8 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.9 113.0 114.0 115.1 115.9 116.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 9 8 8 6 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 13 13 13 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -34. -39. -40. -40. -40. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 110.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##