* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 73 71 63 58 52 45 39 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 68 66 58 53 47 35 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 60 65 59 52 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 14 20 33 38 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 4 7 7 3 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 260 241 209 214 244 230 231 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.5 29.5 29.2 29.1 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 165 167 170 159 154 154 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 4 5 6 2 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 50 48 44 43 36 33 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 10 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 86 86 83 76 40 27 29 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 14 11 19 27 7 15 21 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 7 8 14 6 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 33 10 2 20 28 32 26 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 28.3 29.5 29.7 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.2 111.5 112.6 113.6 113.9 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 7 8 8 4 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 29 31 34 25 23 21 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -12. -17. -25. -31. -35. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.7 109.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.3% 30.7% 26.4% 20.4% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 1.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 10.8% 9.6% 7.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##