* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 52 50 46 43 41 39 34 29 26 26 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 52 50 46 43 41 39 34 29 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 51 48 43 40 38 35 30 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 5 6 8 8 16 15 16 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 7 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 263 258 246 296 26 230 194 183 177 189 175 178 SST (C) 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 126 128 127 126 127 131 134 134 131 124 124 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 46 50 53 56 53 55 52 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -13 -11 -3 13 33 67 69 61 29 28 35 41 200 MB DIV 17 -13 -37 -51 -33 -5 17 60 66 5 25 14 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 6 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1861 1908 1956 2027 2099 2240 2131 2041 1943 1854 1771 1687 1611 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.2 16.9 16.7 17.4 18.4 19.3 19.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.9 131.4 132.0 132.6 133.7 134.8 135.7 136.5 137.2 137.9 138.7 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 6 5 4 6 6 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 8 6 5 8 10 12 16 13 1 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -21. -26. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.7 130.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.58 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 23.0% 15.8% 15.0% 9.9% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.4% 6.0% 5.1% 3.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##