* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 59 58 56 53 48 42 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 59 58 56 53 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 61 59 55 51 46 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 14 18 26 34 38 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 9 7 3 10 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 265 226 228 238 243 228 234 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 169 169 166 162 162 167 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 43 39 33 31 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 79 72 72 58 24 36 37 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 13 33 23 16 0 45 3 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 12 9 19 9 9 12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 22 6 15 24 52 40 69 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.3 28.8 29.9 30.7 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.6 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.6 113.3 113.8 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 31 33 33 30 31 29 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -23. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -12. -17. -23. -27. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.2 110.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##