* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 60 59 59 57 57 53 47 44 44 42 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 60 59 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 58 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 18 28 30 32 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 6 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 239 224 242 251 228 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 168 165 162 153 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 4 3 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 43 43 39 37 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 73 72 66 34 9 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 16 17 7 0 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 8 17 11 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 37 28 51 56 15 -47 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.5 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.5 111.7 111.9 112.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 34 40 37 36 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -12. -17. -21. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.1 110.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##