* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 46 43 38 33 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 46 43 38 33 30 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 39 39 39 38 33 28 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 10 10 7 4 15 11 9 7 7 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -3 -1 6 13 1 0 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 124 25 21 35 66 145 171 187 179 240 268 276 273 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 133 134 135 135 136 130 127 129 132 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 49 55 59 59 60 58 51 45 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 15 12 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 14 19 34 52 80 66 42 20 10 10 31 22 200 MB DIV -37 -32 -6 0 26 31 71 31 21 39 22 18 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 3 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2074 2155 2235 2245 2191 2074 1962 1854 1757 1690 1639 1617 1603 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.5 16.1 15.8 16.5 17.7 18.6 19.0 18.8 18.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.7 133.2 133.8 134.4 135.6 136.5 137.3 138.1 138.7 139.2 139.5 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 12 12 10 13 20 6 3 4 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 132.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.71 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 19.8% 13.7% 13.1% 8.8% 17.4% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.2% 5.0% 4.4% 3.0% 5.9% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##