* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 32 34 36 36 34 29 26 22 19 19 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 32 34 36 36 34 29 26 22 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 22 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 13 6 4 8 12 8 9 11 17 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 11 3 -1 -6 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 14 15 32 80 168 180 168 163 227 275 283 280 276 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 135 136 134 137 133 128 127 128 131 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 46 49 50 54 56 61 60 58 52 47 45 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 15 14 13 10 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 32 54 70 70 55 23 15 13 43 49 50 200 MB DIV -33 -7 13 29 47 71 49 11 50 19 29 12 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 5 7 0 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2157 2242 2251 2195 2139 2009 1878 1771 1679 1615 1565 1529 1521 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 16.7 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.9 17.0 18.3 19.0 19.2 18.9 18.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.2 133.8 134.4 135.0 136.2 137.2 138.0 138.8 139.4 139.9 140.3 140.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 12 11 10 19 10 3 3 3 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 132.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.65 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.4% 16.3% 11.4% 7.8% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.8% 5.6% 3.8% 2.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##