* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 20 20 18 18 18 19 19 18 17 16 V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 20 20 18 18 17 22 25 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 10 10 7 4 10 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 5 2 0 -2 -2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 67 78 98 128 242 261 269 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.3 26.2 25.5 24.5 23.7 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 147 136 125 117 106 97 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 44 44 42 39 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 8 6 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 33 19 17 2 25 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 8 11 19 25 17 15 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -1 -3 0 0 -6 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 243 233 218 171 142 97 -16 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.7 25.9 27.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.7 113.9 113.7 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 111.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.45 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.7% 16.2% 10.9% 0.0% 14.4% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 5.5% 3.7% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##