* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 38 41 48 51 53 55 61 65 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 38 41 48 51 53 55 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 38 41 44 48 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 21 30 30 21 16 9 15 10 10 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 19 27 32 38 40 34 31 30 67 72 104 205 305 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 163 165 167 165 165 160 157 157 158 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 158 159 160 158 157 150 143 139 138 137 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 64 67 68 71 68 64 59 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 10 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 7 3 -1 -16 -15 -20 -32 -36 -39 -35 -26 200 MB DIV 79 51 15 2 20 -10 40 12 44 25 40 43 21 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 222 283 344 406 375 210 24 159 354 496 625 723 787 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.2 17.9 19.9 21.6 22.9 24.1 25.0 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.0 64.5 65.3 65.7 65.7 65.2 65.2 65.4 65.7 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 8 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 54 55 59 65 86 72 74 61 38 31 31 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 13. 16. 18. 20. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 62.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.9% 11.2% 7.0% 6.6% 9.3% 12.6% 20.4% Logistic: 2.1% 3.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 3.5% 1.4% Consensus: 2.5% 7.2% 4.9% 2.7% 2.3% 3.7% 5.8% 8.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 36 38 41 48 51 53 55 61 65 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 37 40 47 50 52 54 60 64 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 36 43 46 48 50 56 60 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 30 37 40 42 44 50 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT