* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 34 30 25 21 20 20 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 34 30 25 21 20 20 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 32 28 22 18 16 16 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 4 2 6 8 16 21 13 7 8 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 0 0 2 9 -4 2 -5 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 32 74 237 248 217 199 204 214 239 296 303 312 298 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 136 137 134 129 127 126 128 130 133 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 57 59 62 58 51 43 39 35 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 7 5 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 57 77 82 68 57 27 4 -6 20 26 52 51 200 MB DIV 8 43 45 45 54 52 42 39 9 12 3 -4 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -2 7 11 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2272 2216 2160 2092 2025 1895 1748 1657 1593 1543 1509 1488 1499 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.9 16.1 17.2 18.5 19.2 19.3 19.0 18.3 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.2 134.8 135.4 136.0 137.0 138.2 139.0 139.6 140.1 140.5 140.8 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 4 2 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 11 16 4 2 2 2 4 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 133.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.73 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.4% 13.7% 13.5% 0.0% 15.0% 14.0% 7.4% Logistic: 0.9% 5.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.9% 5.8% 4.8% 0.2% 5.2% 4.7% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##