* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 42 47 50 52 52 56 61 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 48 50 50 54 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 39 42 44 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 29 29 22 19 8 13 16 13 8 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -5 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 41 41 42 37 24 26 45 92 76 110 4 304 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 167 167 163 165 159 156 157 158 158 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 163 160 160 160 156 156 147 141 139 137 136 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 65 67 70 69 67 62 60 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 18 11 2 -2 -6 -12 -1 -26 -24 -30 -33 -51 -40 200 MB DIV 52 25 7 21 12 14 35 15 26 15 19 1 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 0 -1 0 -3 4 1 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 244 306 372 387 309 123 22 211 389 545 679 749 750 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.9 18.7 20.4 22.0 23.4 24.6 25.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.9 64.6 64.9 65.2 65.8 66.1 65.9 65.8 65.7 65.6 66.0 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 54 61 71 83 76 74 54 34 30 30 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 21. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 63.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.5% 10.8% 7.0% 6.3% 9.2% 12.7% 20.4% Logistic: 1.6% 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 2.2% 6.7% 4.4% 2.5% 2.2% 3.6% 4.8% 8.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 48 50 50 54 58 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 36 39 44 47 49 49 53 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 36 41 44 46 46 50 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 30 35 38 40 40 44 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT