* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 31 29 24 22 19 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 31 29 24 22 19 20 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 11 23 24 13 10 10 10 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 1 0 5 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 25 335 323 232 191 221 219 227 235 275 299 318 285 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 137 132 130 129 128 129 132 138 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 55 59 61 64 65 64 55 49 47 42 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 11 10 6 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 56 81 72 65 55 36 9 -19 -1 18 28 44 47 200 MB DIV 41 51 40 58 53 56 53 46 15 -5 -13 -28 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -3 3 15 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2236 2155 2075 2007 1939 1782 1652 1557 1452 1435 1462 1429 1307 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.4 18.0 17.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.9 135.7 136.3 136.8 138.0 139.1 140.0 141.0 141.2 141.0 141.4 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 8 6 5 3 2 2 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 11 14 14 3 3 3 4 6 12 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -6. -11. -13. -16. -15. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 134.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 22.7% 16.2% 15.5% 9.9% 15.8% 14.4% 7.0% Logistic: 2.4% 12.3% 8.6% 3.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 11.7% 8.3% 6.2% 3.8% 5.7% 4.8% 2.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##