* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 36 40 43 45 46 49 54 58 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 36 40 43 45 46 49 54 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 38 41 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 27 23 19 18 16 22 13 11 6 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 35 33 31 24 26 22 48 51 66 25 35 7 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 167 167 165 165 162 158 158 158 157 152 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 162 161 159 157 151 146 141 138 134 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 70 73 75 73 66 62 57 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 11 11 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 6 9 3 -1 0 -5 -24 -38 -27 -41 -33 -32 200 MB DIV 23 13 25 16 10 54 31 43 21 17 20 15 11 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 -5 0 5 1 1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 289 361 406 315 224 31 126 326 538 680 740 762 771 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 21.4 23.3 24.6 25.3 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 64.1 64.5 64.8 65.2 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.3 65.5 66.0 66.5 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 60 73 85 73 74 64 35 31 30 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. 19. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 63.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.8% 11.8% 7.9% 7.4% 9.7% 12.7% 18.2% Logistic: 1.2% 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.5% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.1% 7.4% 4.8% 2.9% 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 7.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 34 36 40 43 45 46 49 54 58 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 35 39 42 44 45 48 53 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 32 36 39 41 42 45 50 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 31 34 36 37 40 45 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT