* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 46 56 66 73 80 83 86 88 89 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 46 56 66 73 80 83 86 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 37 44 51 56 65 75 82 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 4 6 9 8 13 2 4 7 6 6 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 2 8 2 9 3 4 3 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 260 277 271 296 316 335 7 77 337 257 239 198 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 144 148 148 147 144 133 137 133 134 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 144 148 148 147 144 133 135 130 129 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 75 73 74 73 73 72 68 67 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 17 19 23 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 27 40 44 46 41 61 77 76 69 72 76 82 85 200 MB DIV 91 85 104 110 96 109 92 60 66 74 62 65 38 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 -5 -4 0 3 5 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 535 681 829 965 1085 1336 1609 1911 1822 1695 1675 1694 1794 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.9 16.3 18.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 26.9 29.6 32.3 35.2 38.0 40.4 42.4 44.4 46.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 12 12 16 18 12 19 24 13 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 12. 14. 14. 17. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 36. 43. 50. 53. 56. 58. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 21.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 THIRTEEN 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 22.9% 15.5% 10.6% 7.8% 11.7% 15.8% 38.9% Logistic: 6.3% 30.2% 13.4% 4.1% 2.2% 6.8% 8.3% 15.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 7.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 10.5% Consensus: 4.3% 20.1% 10.2% 5.0% 3.4% 6.4% 8.3% 21.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 THIRTEEN 09/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 41 46 56 66 73 80 83 86 88 89 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 53 63 70 77 80 83 85 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 46 56 63 70 73 76 78 79 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 45 52 59 62 65 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT