* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 36 36 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 36 36 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 33 29 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 14 22 30 20 16 17 14 13 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 2 4 -2 3 -3 -4 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 7 2 178 181 203 217 219 209 239 283 311 340 313 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 134 130 130 126 128 132 136 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 61 61 61 57 50 46 42 43 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 66 62 59 24 3 0 14 8 15 8 28 200 MB DIV 43 45 70 61 39 41 57 17 0 0 -1 -23 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 5 14 8 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2158 2083 2007 1914 1824 1689 1575 1468 1376 1331 1311 1312 1310 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.4 17.1 18.2 18.9 19.3 18.9 18.3 17.7 17.2 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 134.9 135.6 136.3 137.0 137.7 138.8 139.8 140.8 141.7 142.2 142.5 142.6 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 9 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 15 19 4 3 1 3 7 16 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -22. -23. -22. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 134.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 18.7% 18.7% 13.8% 8.9% 12.3% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 9.6% 5.9% 2.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.4% 8.2% 5.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##