* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 22 21 23 24 25 26 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 216 249 263 259 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.2 24.5 23.8 23.3 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 114 107 99 93 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 34 34 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 8 0 23 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 0 7 4 4 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 0 -6 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 142 137 153 93 40 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.7 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.9 113.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##