* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 32 31 34 36 42 46 49 53 58 60 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 32 31 34 36 42 46 49 53 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 33 33 33 35 37 40 44 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 21 17 17 10 15 10 8 3 8 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 36 33 31 24 23 13 32 65 5 237 319 324 316 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 162 162 159 154 157 157 149 145 144 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 159 155 155 150 144 143 137 125 122 121 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 71 75 72 67 56 54 50 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 5 4 7 6 -18 -31 -25 -38 -54 -36 -53 200 MB DIV 7 29 21 11 15 36 29 37 16 26 18 13 2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 415 341 256 152 49 123 369 626 839 923 905 895 919 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 19.6 21.8 24.1 26.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.8 65.2 65.4 65.7 65.9 65.6 65.3 65.1 65.4 66.2 67.0 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 7 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 58 66 80 87 73 75 62 29 34 29 26 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -1. 1. 7. 11. 14. 18. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 64.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.5% 10.2% 6.8% 6.1% 9.2% 12.9% 21.3% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.9% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.1% 4.0% 2.4% 2.1% 3.4% 4.9% 8.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 32 31 34 36 42 46 49 53 58 60 18HR AGO 35 34 32 32 31 34 36 42 46 49 53 58 60 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 33 35 41 45 48 52 57 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 27 29 35 39 42 46 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT