* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 52 58 67 74 81 86 88 90 91 93 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 52 58 67 74 81 86 88 90 91 93 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 51 59 65 71 79 84 87 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 4 7 12 15 5 5 8 10 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 2 5 6 5 4 5 9 -2 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 285 304 283 324 306 332 4 353 287 222 229 224 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 150 148 144 147 138 137 134 132 139 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 150 148 144 147 138 137 131 127 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 78 77 74 74 73 71 71 66 63 55 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 19 20 21 24 26 27 29 31 32 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 54 50 49 82 82 88 88 110 98 105 105 200 MB DIV 75 84 100 94 109 111 72 69 51 26 41 35 25 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -2 0 -5 -3 -2 1 -4 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 718 865 1000 1121 1247 1529 1807 1910 1725 1658 1676 1736 1835 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.8 17.4 19.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 28.7 31.5 34.2 37.0 39.8 42.0 43.8 45.4 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 11 11 17 16 15 23 16 14 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 23. 32. 39. 46. 51. 53. 55. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.1 23.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 THIRTEEN 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 40.5% 26.1% 12.4% 10.0% 15.5% 22.5% 45.8% Logistic: 10.2% 42.1% 23.5% 6.8% 3.2% 12.6% 10.9% 7.2% Bayesian: 3.9% 18.6% 6.7% 0.6% 0.3% 6.7% 9.6% 24.9% Consensus: 7.1% 33.7% 18.7% 6.6% 4.5% 11.6% 14.3% 26.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 19.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 13.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 THIRTEEN 09/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 52 58 67 74 81 86 88 90 91 93 18HR AGO 35 34 40 47 53 62 69 76 81 83 85 86 88 12HR AGO 35 32 31 38 44 53 60 67 72 74 76 77 79 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 47 54 59 61 63 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT