* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 49 47 41 33 27 21 19 19 20 20 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 49 47 41 33 27 21 19 19 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 49 42 34 27 23 22 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 14 21 22 25 22 19 20 15 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 1 4 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 191 174 193 209 210 217 223 260 282 323 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 135 132 126 127 127 131 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 60 61 58 48 43 39 36 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 74 61 58 37 12 -2 10 19 11 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 78 55 48 55 45 36 21 6 8 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 12 15 5 1 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2093 2008 1923 1852 1782 1608 1477 1394 1289 1221 1194 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.8 19.6 19.4 19.3 18.7 17.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.2 136.9 137.5 138.0 139.5 140.7 141.5 142.5 143.2 143.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 14 19 15 4 1 2 3 9 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 2. -4. -12. -18. -24. -26. -26. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 135.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.37 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 24.5% 22.6% 17.1% 11.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 5.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 10.1% 8.7% 6.2% 3.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 11.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##